NEWSLETTER

The economic data we observe on a daily basis can generally be divided into two distinct categories: hard data and soft data. Hard data are quantitative in nature, objective, measurable figures collected from official 

What a week! I must be honest; at one point I was skeptical about even writing our usual quarterly update. If Goldman Sachs changes its economic view within an hour ...

The volatility observed in the stock markets in recent weeks is largely driven by the assertive and unpredictable communication style of US President Donald Trump. His contradictory statements have fueled 

Overconfidence, or the illusion of control, is one of the many pitfalls in behavioural finance that describes the tendency of...

The expected return is an estimate of the investment return at a specific maturity, based on all available information at a given point in time...

Over the past few weeks, volatility in financial markets has surged, as if investors suddenly recognized that the probability of recession in the coming months is greater than zero. The data that has ...

Phase transitions. More or less what we think is currently happening in the US economy. Phase transitions is a term often used in chemistry (but not exclusively there) to describe the transformation ...

Interest rates are one of the key variables for estimating the Intrinsic Value of the stock market and consequently its expected long-term return ...

Those that have been lucky enough to live through the year 2000s tend to always expect the unexpected. It’s a matter of experience